The availability heuristic is a cognitive bias in which people estimate the likelihood or frequency of an event based on how easily examples come to mind. Events that are recent, vivid, or emotionally charged are more readily recalled and therefore judged as more common or probable than they actually are.
This bias can distort risk perception and decision-making. For example, dramatic but rare events, such as plane crashes, may be overestimated in frequency, while more common but less memorable risks may be underestimated. Media exposure, personal experience, and emotional impact all increase availability.
The availability heuristic is a type of mental shortcut that prioritizes ease of recall over statistical accuracy, often leading to systematic errors in judgment.
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